Quantifying Petrophysical Uncertainty in Geolog
No petrophysical interpretation is complete without quantified uncertainty included in the results.
Petrophysical results play a critical role in the assessment of hydrocarbons in place in a reservoir. However, when the value of a prospect is determined, it is not the best technical interpretation which is used, but a pessimistic version of that interpretation, the difference being the quantified uncertainty.
It is therefore essential that petrophysicists understand the nature and impact of their uncertainties and be involved in calculating the pessimistic and optimistic cases to be used in the reservoir models. The most thorough methods of quantifying petrophysical uncertainty are a combination of Monte Carlo processing and scenario modeling.
Emerson's Geolog™ formation evaluation solution has the industry’s leading application of Monte Carlo processing for quantifying petrophysical uncertainty. This lecture will illustrate how the processes should be run and the pitfalls of running Monte Carlo processing incorrectly.
Rick Aldred is a petrophysicist with 40 years of experience, including 15 years with operating oil companies, 10 years with logging companies providing petrophysical consulting services, 10 years in petrophysical software R&D, and 5 years as an independent consultant.
In 1980 Rick graduated from Keele University in England with a Joint (Hons) degree in Geology and Physical Geography. He has subsequently worked in Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Subcontinent, East and Southeast Asia, and Australia.
He currently works as a consultant petrophysicist based in Brisbane, Australia. He specializes in building software solutions to solve complex petrophysical problems, training in advanced petrophysical applications, and performing general petrophysical interpretation work.