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Uncertainty Management

In the oil & gas industry, executive level decisions with respect to field acquisitions, development or divestiture tend to have multimillion-dollar values. The challenge is to minimize the risk associated with these decisions through efficient utilization of data and available technical resources. 

The RMS™ uncertainty management solution enables risks to be assessed and confident decision-making based on realistic 3D static and dynamic reservoir models.

Uncertainty management can be done either by defining an Uncertainty/Sensitivity Setup or by using Big Loop™ Variables in combination with an external uncertainty management orchestrator. 

In the Uncertainty/Sensitivity Setup, uncertain variables are selected in a workflow, and the ranges for these variables are defined in a multi-realization project. Various plots and analysis tools can be used to analyze theoutput from the multiple realizations, to provide a better basis for decision-making through the entire field development cycle.  

The Big Loop Variables method is used when running uncertainty management in an external orchestrator such as Tempest™ ENABLE. The ranges of the uncertain variable can be set in the external orchestrator, and then imported for use in RMS. When running different scenarioes or uncertainty studies, only the input file needs to be updated, and no changes are needed in RMS. This is an efficient way to quickly run multiple scenarios in RMS, providing a deeper understanding of the impact of the variables on the end result.  

RMS Uncertainty Management Benefits 

  • Reduce risks by improved understanding of uncertainties and improve the time to decision making with automated workflows.
  • Make decisions with greater confidence by understanding the span of equiprobable reservoir models. 
  • ​RMS is a vital part of Big Loop workflows, allowing the user to manage uncertainties both internally or by using external orchestrators.   

RMS Uncertainty Management Features

Maximize reservoir performance by: 

  • Quantifying uncertainties - Subsurface uncertainties across the complete modeling workflow can be investigated, allowing quick identification and quantification of those with the most impact on the reservoir. 
  • Reducing risk - Once key uncertainties are quantified they can be used to manage project risk, allowing the optimal development or reservoir management strategy to be followed. Information about the biggest uncertainties can also be used to identify where more detailed analysis or data collection is required in order to gain a more complete understanding of the reservoir. 
  • Improving decision-making - With a more complete understanding  of reservoir uncertainties and risk, reliable decisions can be made based on the maximum amount of information. 
  • Faster workflows - Complex, fine scale models can be time consuming and are not appropriate for all decisions. Customizable workflows and a choice of dynamic analysis methods ensure that the appropriate level of detail can be chosen for each phase of the decision-making process. Details and complexity can be added as required, ensuring the best decisions in the shortest time.